Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.047875 0.054431 0.061759 0.070592 0.081001 0.092937 0.107744
2025-12-07 0.038143 0.046283 0.056135 0.069066 0.085781 0.106924 0.136115
2025-12-14 0.030451 0.038999 0.050063 0.065692 0.087631 0.117995 0.164411
2025-12-21 0.023698 0.031735 0.042739 0.059295 0.084279 0.121789 0.184856
2025-12-28 0.020115 0.028147 0.039774 0.058425 0.088771 0.138479 0.231341
2026-01-04 0.017597 0.025668 0.037990 0.059032 0.095950 0.162093 0.300379
2026-01-11 0.015352 0.023242 0.035885 0.058757 0.101854 0.186109 0.383485
2026-01-18 0.013495 0.021139 0.033946 0.058411 0.107790 0.213046 0.490256
2026-01-25 0.011728 0.018917 0.031438 0.056536 0.110429 0.234881 0.601728
2026-02-01 0.010125 0.016746 0.028671 0.053600 0.110175 0.250742 0.711797
2026-02-08 0.009124 0.015501 0.027406 0.053467 0.116364 0.286257 0.918731
2026-02-15 0.008262 0.014388 0.026216 0.053257 0.122511 0.325698 1.187742
2026-02-22 0.007593 0.013569 0.025520 0.054143 0.132337 0.383983 1.628329
2026-03-01 0.006981 0.012777 0.024754 0.054727 0.141868 0.449289 2.233202
2026-03-08 0.006312 0.011781 0.023395 0.053547 0.146001 0.499555 2.877565
2026-03-15 0.005536 0.010472 0.021148 0.049576 0.140039 0.506453 3.256733
2026-03-22 0.005131 0.009894 0.020480 0.049739 0.148167 0.583548 4.479944
2026-03-29 0.004833 0.009512 0.020208 0.050978 0.160938 0.697807 6.622720
2026-04-05 0.004520 0.009053 0.019682 0.051366 0.170989 0.811603 9.529954
2026-04-12 0.004230 0.008615 0.019139 0.051588 0.180774 0.939162 13.834962
2026-04-19 0.003906 0.008059 0.018215 0.050390 0.184125 1.031802 18.608570
2026-04-26 0.003572 0.007445 0.017057 0.048160 0.181965 1.084772 23.294433
2026-05-03 0.003369 0.007121 0.016624 0.048314 0.191494 1.249909 35.243110